By Chris Oddo | Friday January 6, 2016
The No.1 ranking is secure but there's huge implications for the winner and loser of Saturday's Doha final between Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic.
Photo source: AFP
The dream final has become a reality at the Qatar Exxon Mobil Open.
Andy Murray won his 28th consecutive match, defeating Tomas Berdych, 6-3, 6-4, to set a 36th meeting with Novak Djokovic in the final. Earlier in the day, Djokovic saved five match points to defeat Fernando Verdasco, 4-6, 7-6(7), 6-3.
The pair last met at the World Tour Finals, where the year-end No.1 ranking was on the line. Murray scored a massive 6-3, 6-4 victory over Djokovic on that day in what was deemed to be a possible game-changer in the course of the rivalry between the two.
Djokovic has famously had the upper hand against Murray over the years (24-11 lifetime), and a quick glance at the head-to-head shows just how much devastation the Serb has done to Murray, particularly since 2014.
Djokovic has won five of their seven Grand Slam finals, but the pair have split ten Masters 1000 title matches. But Djokovic had managed 13 of 14 matches against Murray until the Rome final last year. That is where the Scotsman, in the midst of his greatest year as a professional, started to turn the tide. He defeated Djokovic there and lost to him in the Roland Garros final. But at London, with so much at stake, he claimed the one-sided victory and the all-important top ranking.
Murray’s 2016 was already amazing. He won Wimbledon and the Gold Medal in Rio. But he lacked a definitive victory over Djokovic to really drive home the point that he was operating on a different, more elevated plane than ever before.
What did it mean for Murray’s confidence? What does it mean for the future of the rivalry?
At the time it sure seemed important, but Saturday’s final in Doha could be every bit as important—even more. Djokovic is searching for momentum heading into Australia, and he could kill two birds with one stone by smashing Murray’s winning streak and seizing control of the rivalry once again.
But it will not be an easy task. Murray has been in better form than Djokovic since Wimbledon (in Doha he has looked more calm and confident while Djokovic came very close to disaster on Friday against Verdasco), and it really feels like he could be playing a spoiler role to Djokovic that is very similar to the one that Djokovic himself played against Rafael Nadal.
Remember in 2011 when a dialed-in Djokovic stopped Rafael Nadal’s Grand Slam domination in its tracks by defeating him seven consecutive times? Those victories were epic for Djokovic and they did a lot to bring down the confidence of Nadal. It took Nadal two years to recover from that, and Djokovic does not have that kind of time as he approaches 30. Could Murray be in the process of doing the same thing to Djokovic?
Djokovic wants no part of the Murray as true No.1 narrative, clearly. But there’s only one way to avoid it—beating him. That’s why the Doha final is more than just a warmup for a major. This match could end up having major implications on the season of both players. If Murray wins, he stretches the perceived distance between himself and Djokovic; if Djokovic wins he could shatter the belief of Murray and start the process of regaining control of their head-to-head.
This is not a match to be taken lightly. As far as ATP-250 finals go, we don’t know if there’s ever been a bigger one. The winner will head to Melbourne on a magic carpet of confidence; the loser will have some thinking to do.
The long, winding path of two of the greatest champions of their generation has led to Doha. Murray and Djokovic, for all the marbles and all the confidence, as another Grand Slam season beckons. The tennis season is only six days old and already it feels monumental. The tone of 2017 will be set in the Doha final. Let the battle begin.
Notes and Numbers
Djokovic leads Murray 10-8 in finals.
Murray Owns 28-0 record in matches and 57-6 in sets since Sept. 18 with 14 victories vs. Top 20.
Regardless of the result, Murray will expand his lead over Djokovic at the top of the ATP Rankings. Murray has 12,410 points and will add either 150 or 250; Djokovic has 11,780 points and will either stay put or lose 100 points, because he is defending the Doha total.
Djokovic is 16-9 against Murray in best-of-three, and he has won six of seven best-of-three deciders against Murray.