By Chris Oddo | Thursday January 13, 2016
Who were the biggest wnners and losers at Friday's draw ceremony in Melbourne? We break it all down in our women's singles preview.
Photo Source: AO Facebook
The draws have been made and the countdown has begun. Just two days left til the Happy Slam begins in Melbourne. We’re breaking down the women’s singles draw to try and make some sense of the madness.
Biggest Winner: Garbiñe Muguruza
The Spaniard has a section that she can navigate, with Carla Suarez Navarro the highest seed in her eighth t No.10. Suarez Navarro is a tough player but will she even make it the round of 16? Muguruza could face a lot of unproven players, none of which possess the power and pedigree that she has. If she is healthy and playing well, she could make her way through this section to a potential quarterfinal with Angelique Kerber without too much fuss. If she does end up facing Kerber she’ll be buoyed by the fact that she has won four straight against the German. One issue for Muguruza is her health. If her right thigh has properly healed, she could be ready to roll in Melbourne.
Biggest Loser: Serena Williams
The 22-time major champion opens with former Top-10 and likely future Top-10 player Belinda Bencic, a player that defeated Williams in the 2015 Rogers Cup semis. Bencic suffered a toe injury and had to pull out of Sydney, but she did go 2-1 at Hopman Cup. If healthy, she’ll force Serena to be on point in her opening match—something that doesn’t always happen. If Williams gets through round one she could face former French Open finalist Lucie Safarova in round two and rising Hungarian Timea Babos in round three. It all adds up to a difficult week one in Melbourne for Williams. Even if she gets through she may end up starting week two a lot more fatigued than she would have liked—we’ll see.
Best First-Rounders
Samantha Stosur vs. Heather Watson
Serena Williams vs. Belinda Bencic
Kristina Mladenovic vs. Ana Konjuh
Alison Riske vs. Madison Brengle
Camila Giorgi vs. Timea Bacsinszky
Kerber’s Quarter: Preview
Kerber has stumbled a bit out of the gate, losing two of three at Brisbane and Sydney, but she hasn’t played too poorly. Her first-round opponent Lesia Tsurenko, former World No.33, pulled out of the Hobart semis with a viral illness. The pair played a three-setter in their only previous meeting in 2015. Also lurking in Kerber’s path is Irina-Camelia Begu, a talented Romanian who owns two career wins against the German, and finally Daria Kasatkina, the 19-year-old Russian who defeated Kerber in Sydney this week.
If Kerber reaches the quarterfinal, she’s projected to face Garbiñe Muguruza. The Spaniard has won four in a row against Kerber.
Other Lurkers in this Section
Eugenie Bouchard, CoCo Vandeweghe, Lauren Davis, No.15-seeded Roberta Vinci and No.10-seeded Carla Suarez Navarro.
Semifinalist: Muguruza
Halep’s Quarter: Preview
It’s also hard to say what type of form Halep will bring into Melbourne. She went 1-1 in Shenzhen and faces a tricky encounter with American Shelby Rogers in round one. Halep is a two-time quarterfinalist in Melbourne, but was bounced in round one last year by China’s Zhang Shuai. Can she get rolling in 2017? There’s absolutely no reason that she can’t come out of her section, which also features Venus Williams, Elina Svitolina and Monica Puig. Halep’s projected quarterfinal opponent, if the seeds hold, would be Svetlana Kuznetsova.
Svitolina is a player (in Kuznetsova’s eighth) that is being tabbed as a potential breakout, and her chances of reaching the second week for the first time look pretty good. No.24-seeded Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, somewhat enigmatic but also very talented, is the Ukrainian’s potential third-round foe.
Other Lurkers in this Section
Francesca Schiavone, making her last Australian Open appearance, Kiki Bertens, Jelena Jankovic and Katerina Siniakova.
Semifinalist: Svitolina
Radwanska’s Quarter: Preview
Agnieszka Radwanska is a two-time semifinalist that knows her way around the venue in Melbourne. And if the draw breaks her way she definitely has the potential to not just get to the final four, but to go all the way. But Radwanska, to some degree, will always be dependent on her opponent’s form. If her foe plays lights out, like Johanna Konta did in the Sydney final, Radwanska can be helpless.
That’s a tough way to live, especially when you’re projected quarterfinal opponent is bomb-serving Karolina Pliskova(seeded 5th). Radwanska doesn’t have the trickiest section (she’s projected to face Alizé Cornet in round three and potentially Samantha Stosur or Elina Vesnina in the round of 16, but if she ends up facing Pliskova in the quarters—watch out. But there is good news for Radwanska for those looking ahead. She is 7-0 vs. Pliskova and has yet to drop a set against the Czech.
Other Lurkers in this Section
No.22 seed Daria Gavrilova, No.31 seed Yulia Putintseva, Camila Giorgi, Kristina Mladenovic, Ana Konjuh.
Semifinalist: Radwanska
Serena’s Quarter: Preview
Serena, as we mentioned, should be tested in week one. And if she comes through, how will she come through? Remember last year’s U.S. Open when she fell to Karolina Pliskova in the semis? She was a tired tennis player at that point in the tournament—she’ll need to find a way to not only make the second week, but to make it with a certain freshness because it will only get tougher for Williams, who could face red-hot Johanna Konta or Caroline Wozniacki or Dominika Cibulkova in the quarters if she gets there. This section of the draw is loaded with names and could produce some titanic third and fourth round matchups. As always, a lot depends on how well Serena feels and plays. Her form in Auckland left a lot to be desired, so hopefully she’s put in some hard yards over the last ten days.
Other Lurkers in this Section
No.16 seed Barbora Strycova, Naomi Osaka, No.30 seed Ekaterina Makarova, Sara Errani, Williams’ aforementioned minefields, which are Belinda Bencic and Lucie Safarova.
Semifinalist: Williams
Semifinals: Muguruza d. Svitolina and Radwanska d. Williams
Champion: Radwanska