By Richard Pagliaro | Tuesday, January 19, 2016
No. 4-seeded Agnieszka Radwanska faces Genie Bouchard in a battle of 2014 Australian Open semifinalists.
Photo credit: Mark Peterson/Corleve
Each day we'll preview and predict results for several must-see Melbourne matches.
Our Day 3 picks and previews are here.
More: Top 5 Takeaways from Nadal's Australian Open Loss
(3) Roger Federer vs. (35) Alexandr Dolgopolov
Rod Laver Arena (Third day match)
Head-to-head: Federer leads 2-0
Match the creative Swiss maestro with the unpredictable Ukrainian with a passion for the drop shot and wildly entertaining shot-making can ensue. Dolgopolov is one of the fastest men in the game, owns a quick-release service motion that's very tough to read and is a 2011 Australian Open quarterfinals who relishes the challenges of facing the elite. Last summer, Dolgoplov was two points from upsetting Novak Djokovic in the Cincinnati semifinals before the world No. 1 rallied for a three-set win.
Federer has yet to drop a set against the unconventional Ukrainian, primarily because he's been able to dictate play using his serve and forehand. Dolgopolov has a penchant for chipping back his forehand return and will play the slice forehand when stretched. Look for Federer to challenge Dolgopolov's forehand, both with the slice serve wide and by hammering his own forehand with heavy pace. Federer is 16-0 lifetime in Australian Open second-round matches and despite battling a cold earlier this month, the four-time former champion shouldn't falter here.
The Pick: Federer in four sets
(4) Agnieszka Radwanska vs. (37) Eugenie Bouchard
Rod Laver Arena (First night match)
Head-to-head: Radwanska leads 1-0
A marquee second-round clash that could have been a semifinal a couple of years ago. Both are 2014 Australian Open semifinalists, both like to hug the baseline and hit the ball on the rise, both are comfortable with the speed of the court and both have had success Down Under before.
That's where the similarities end. Eager to revive her career after a horrid 2015 that included a slew of firt-round exits and a lawsuit against the USTA after suffering a concussion at the US Open, Bouchard has burst out to a 7-2 record this season, including a trip to the Hobart final. The Canadian will try to control the center of the court and make this a match of first-strike tennis.
Radwanska has more gears to her game; she's skilled at changing the pace, is comfortable from more areas of the court and players with more finesse and control. Radwanska will need to protect her second serve, but the Shenzhen champion has too many shots and should continue her undefeated start to the season.
The Pick: Radwanska in two sets
(6) Petra Kvitova vs. (39) Daria Gavrilova
Margaret Court Arena (Second night match)
Head-to-head: Kvitova leads 1-0
If this rematch of their riveting Wuhan clash matches the intensity of their first meeting, this could be one of the most electrifying encounters of Day 3.
Kvitova won the final four games fighting off the feisty Gavrilova, 6-3, 4-6, 7-5 in Wuhan last September, admitting afterward “I don’t know how I won it.”
Kvitova, who has failed to survive the second round in four of seven prior Melbourne appearances, must play clean tennis with a purpose against the quick, Moscow-born Aussie, who can crack the forehand and loves to play off pace.
Gavrilova is fearless in the face of big hitters—she toppled Maria Sharapova in Miami last spring—and is a high-energy player who will try to pump up the Aussie fanatics as she did partnering Nick Kyrgios to the Hopman Cup championship in Perth. Kvitova can be a slow starter and does not want to get dragged into a three-setter against the 21-year-old Gavrilova, who is 3-9 lifetime vs. Top 10 opponents with all three wins coming in the past year.
The two-time Wimbledon winner possesses more power and is more explosive. If Kvitova can minimize careless errors and curtail the crowd enthusiasm, she should prevail, but knows this is a potential big battle against a dangerous young opponent.
The Pick: Kvitova in three sets