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By Richard Pagliaro | Wednesday, January 28, 2015

 
Maria Sharapova

Maria Sharapova has won 10 of 11 sets against compatriot Ekaterina Makarova.

Photo credit: corleve

(2) Maria Sharapova vs. (10) Ekaterina Makarova
Rod Laver Arena
Head-to-head: Sharapova leads 5-0


The two have a history and it's been a bleak saga for Makarova.

The second-ranked Sharapova has dominated this all-Russian match-up winning 10 of the 11 sets they've played. Sharapova punished Makarova, 6-2, 6-2, in the 2013 Australian Open quarterfinals, which came a year after her 6-2, 6-3 victory in the 2012 quarterfinals.

Contesting her second straight Grand Slam semifinal, Makarova is a more confident and accomplished player these days. Sharapova suggests her opponent's relaxed mind-set and devious slicing lefty serve make this a far more demanding challenge than their past matches.

"I'm also facing an opponent that wasn't necessarily a favorite coming into that stage. That's always a tricky situation because she's going to come into that match free and almost happy to be in that situation, and that's dangerous," Sharapova said. "I haven't faced a lefty in this tournament yet. She's been using her lefty serve extremely well from what I've seen."

An all-court player who is more comfortable around net than Sharapova, the 2014 U.S. Open doubles champion has not surrendered a set in the tournament. Makarova is skilled in all areas and will try to play some sharper angles to stretch Sharapova as she did so effectively with her backhand against third-ranked Simona Halep in the quarterfinals.

Look for Makarova to try to establish her slider serve down the middle on the deuce side and wide on the ad side to set up her forehand. She lays her wrist back on that sweeping stroke, which disguises its direction.

Sharapova is the more powerful player, who has controlled the center of the court and commanded baseline rallies in past meetings against Makarova. While the 10th seed has served effectively, Sharapova's 26 service breaks ties her with Venus and Serena for the tournament lead.

When Makarova is landing her hooking lefty serve that sets up her first strike, she can beat almost anyone in Oz as evidenced by her past wins over Serena Williams, Venus Williams and Ana Ivanovic. If she's serving better than 65 percent and Sharapova cooperates by spitting out double faults on key points this could get interesting.

However, Sharapova has handled Makarova's second serve in the past, she is the more powerful player and typically operates with the ruthlessness of an MMA fighter in latter stages of Grand Slams.

The Pick: Sharapova in two sets


(1) Serena Williams vs. Madison Keys
Rod Laver Arena
Head-to-head: First meeting


A generational clash between players who refuse to act their age could crackle with dynamic rallies.

The 19-year-old Keys is coming of age quickly and has the power, athleticism and all-court skills to become the first American teenager to advance to a Grand Slam final since Serena did it at the 2001 U.S. Open.

The 33-year-old Williams is primed to become the oldest woman in the Open era to reach the Australian Open final — and poised to capture her 19th career Grand Slam title.

It's the first all-American Grand Slam semifinal since Serena defeated Lindsay Davenport, Keys' coach, at the 2002 U.S. Open. Keys is bidding to become the first player to defeat both Serena and Venus at the same Grand Slam tournament since Kim Clijsters at the 2009 U.S. Open and she has the game to get the job done.

The first-time semifinalist has a dual challenge of playing the world's most dangerous player while trying to manage the pain of a strained left abductor she sustained in her quarterfinal win over the 18th-seeded Venus.

"It's one of those things where it's probably going to hurt, I'm probably going to have tape on it, but I'm just going to do my absolute best and enjoy the moment," said Keys.

Espresso fanatic Serena won't need a caffeine fix to get herself going. After three sluggish starts in a row in comeback victories over Vera Zvonareva, Elina Svitolina and Garbine Muguruza, Williams kicked her game into a higher gear. She played her most dynamic tennis and most complete match hitting 15 aces in dismissing Dominika Cibulkova in the quarters. Williams has found her rhythm on serve, showing an assortment of spins and angles while smacking 32 aces in her last two matches.

A fast start is crucial because both women are strong front-runners who can stretch leads quickly. Serena leads the tournament with 57 aces; Madison is second in the ace race with 30.

Short turnaround time for treatment combined with Serena's skill in detonating running rallies could compel Madison to play even bigger and bolder early in rallies. Keys said she amped up her aggression in the quarterfinals shortening points to reduce the risk of aggravating her injury.

"I knew if I was going to get stretched out it was going to be more painful. It was kind of that thing if you have it, go for it, because I'm probably not going to last that long in a rally," said Keys.

Williams moved beautifully and played cleanly (31 winners against 18 errors) in the quarterfinals. She will test Keys' movement in running rallies and would be wise to work some shorter angles with her topspin backhand as she did against Dominka Cibulkova to spread the court. This is a match where Serena's ability to change the pace and spin may be as important as her power.

The top seed has been bothered by a chest cold and hacking cough and could feel the added burden of knowing she would lose her No. 1 ranking if she falls in the semifinals and the second-ranked Sharapova goes on to win the title.

Barring injury, Keys will be a Grand Slam contender for years to come. The fact she just beat Venus and faced Serena (at age 14 in World TeamTennis) gives her some exposure to the pace and power Williams delivers. Still, Serena is more experienced, remains the best closer in the game and looks hungry for her 19th Grand Slam title.

The Pick: S. Williams in 2 sets

 

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