By Chris Oddo | Monday, November 17, 2014
November came in like a lion, but many left it like lambs. Here's five things we learned while watching this year's World Tour Finals in London.
Photo Source: Getty
The ATP World Tour Finals were quite the spectacle last week in London, and maybe not in the way that many fans expected or wanted. But in the end tennis fans ended up with a memorable—if strange and periodically depressing—event that featured the first three-peat in 27 years and one dramatic match that will go down as one of the best three-setters of the season, for all the right and wrong reasons.
More: Are Federer and Wawrinka Feuding?
We also were left with a lot of question marks, a few ill-timed rumors and a champion crowned without having to play the final.
Where does it all leave us as we prepare to break for the off-season and start thinking about 2015 (and get ready for the Davis Cup final)? Here’s five things that we learned from a chaotic week of not-so-scintillating tennis in London:
The Big Four Are Not Very Healthy
Memo: The one main impediment to continued and sustained big four dominance in men’s tennis in the upcoming years will be …HEALTH. With Rafael Nadal missing the event due to multiple injuries (mainly appendicitis, but he’s undergone stem cell treatment for his back and just fought through a wrist injury), Andy Murray spending the whole year trying to find his form after back surgery and Roger Federer pulling out of the final from the same issues that were close to catastrophic for his level in 2013, things are indeed a little scary for the big four at the moment.
Novak Djokovic, currently enjoying a 31-match indoor winning streak that led him to a third consecutive title in London and a third year-end No. 1 ranking in the last four years, is the only player who remains immune. But even Djokovic struggled this year with wrist issues, and it definitely played a role in his clay-court season.
Tennis in mid-November is a crapshoot at best
Is it any surprise that there were multiple blowouts in London? It’s November, and players limped in after a season’s worth of high-intensity tennis, trying to warm the body up for one last go-round at the 02. Seems like the adrenaline would kick in for players, but the reality is that the adrenaline had ALREADY BEEN KICKING in for Andy Murray, Tomas Berdych, Milos Raonic and Marin Cilic (Kei Nishikori, too, had work to do to qualify for London). Each had to battle to ensure qualification for the tour’s “elite” year-ending event, and when they showed up in London against fresher and more experienced players like Federer and Djokovic, they were simply not experienced enough at being “elite” in November to be up to the task.
One can make the argument that Federer and Djokovic were also running on fumes, as they had been battling for No. 1, and it is, to a certain extent, true. But Federer and Djokovic have so much experience at this time of year (they now have ten WTF titles between them), they were able to access something that the rest of the field simply didn’t have. It’s called "been-there-done-that-ness," and it showed.
Roger Federer could reach No. 1 next season, but not if his back is an issue
Roger Federer played such sublime tennis in London that it almost made people forget how one-sided and devoid of drama his first three matches were. What was more impressive about Federer’s performance was that he was able to win on a surface that was considered to favor baseliners over servers. Very low ace counts and service winner totals didn’t detain Federer from running roughshod over the field in the round-robin phase of play. He dropped only 13 games and whacked his backhand like he hasn’t done in a long time. He attacked the net with aplomb and, when it mattered most, delivered in the clutch against Stan Wawrinka to reach the final in what was by far and away the dramatic high point of the tournament.
Federer’s athleticism and grace have always been there, but in London he made it strikingly clear that his physicality was also there. He was the perfect, well-rounded, well-oiled killing machine in London—until his back took him out of the tournament. Then all the exclamation points turned to question marks and we won’t have answers for a few months now…
Even at five in the world, Kei Nishikori looks to be a player on the rise
24-year-old Kei Nishikori was running on fumes like the rest of the non-Federer-or-Djokovic participants in London, but what set the Japanese No. 1 apart from the wallowing masses who suffered ignominious beatdowns in London was Nishikori’s mental toughness and his incredible movement and baseline game.
Dealing with a wrist injury and a pair of tired feet, Nishikori once again put his newfound mental toughness on display in London. He battled tooth and nail to get past a fresh-legged David Ferrer to improve his record in deciders in 2014 to 21-2 and reach the last four in London on his debut. Then, with his tank ever closer to E, Nishikori rallied to push Djokovic into a third set in the semis. He ran out of gas in the decider but by then Nishikori has already made his statement to the world at London. Pain is just a word, but pedigree at the elite level is a real and tangible thing that helps to win matches.
Watch out for this young man in Australia, a place where he has historically played great tennis.
Novak Djokovic could run the table at No. 1 next year
Djokovic’s fantastic season may have had a few bittersweet tinges (that he failed in his quest to win Roland Garros and lost his title in Australia) but the Serb responded to every bit of bad fortune that was thrown his way with more determination and joie de tennis to solidify his spot at No. 1 and reassess his dominant stance in men’s tennis by season’s end.
With 121 weeks at No. 1 (not much less than Nadal), and playing as if he is the only member of the big four that can still be considered to be “in his prime,” it certainly seems possible that Djokovic could hold the No. 1 ranking for a full year—maybe more?—in addition to drawing closer to the double-digit major mark in 2015. Playing at such a torrid pace in 2011, many thought Djokovic would already be closing in on double-digit Grand Slam titles by now, but the fact that he isn’t quite there yet might serve to make him an even more determined, hungry individual next season.
As far as the tennis goes, Djokovic summoned some truly brilliant tennis down the stretch in 2014. If he can find a way to parlay his scorching form into another deep run in Australia, he very well could be headed for another rip-roaring campaign in 2015.
Note: An earlier version of this article incorrectly stated that Andy Murray spent the year recovering from hip surgery. Murray's surgery was a back surgery.